Prediction: Highway 40 Shutdown Not So Bad — At First
To watch the local news and read the newspaper, one might be forgiven for thinking that Armageddon is at St. Louis’ doorstep. Using the verb “survive” to describe a commute could be a bit of poetic license. That’s why I’m going to buck the trend and make the prediction that the Highway 40 shutdown will not be all that bad… at least at first.
Sure, you may wait an extra cycle at a light, and if your previous commute was straight down Highway 40, it will take longer. But initially, at least, you won’t see gridlock nor will 20 minute commutes turn into 2 hours. Why? Quite simple. The media has scared the daylights out of anyone who is not required by their job or the law to travel in the vicinity of Highway 40. The fashionable New Year’s resolutions are to cancel any discretionary trips near West County.
Forgive the diversion, but this reminds me of a story. Back in 1993, I was starting a new semester at college and was watching the local St. Louis news with a foreign exchange student who’d just arrived in the U.S. from Germany the day before. The lead story on the news was that Highway 40 in the Chesterfield Valley was re-opened after the floods had receded. What was this student’s reaction to this clearly earth shattering news for the St. Louis driving-obsessed public? Laughter. She simply couldn’t understand how a road’s status could be a lead news story. I guess she could be forgiven, though, since she came from a country with an actual functioning nationwide mass transit system.
Back to today’s Highway 40 obsession. Yes, you could get up at 4:30 AM tomorrow and watch the “Special Report” on Highway 40 on your favorite local news station. Not that there can be anything useful to say at 4:30 in the morning, other than it’s dark, cold, and, yes, Highway 40 is closed. But it will continue to feed the frenzy and keep people away from the roads.
I can’t say how long this hysteria will last — at least until the next local celebrity is caught drinking and driving. Eventually the media frenzy will die off and word will get out that the roads aren’t so bad. Since those discretionary trips can’t be postponed forever, the drivers will return and venture out again. When that happens, my previous predictions will come true — some key chokepoints will cause headaches for many a driver in 2008.
In the meantime, enjoy your drive.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 1st, 2008 at 9:56 pm and is filed under Predictions. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
on January 1, 2008 at 10:21 pm Patrick D. Richmond (Volunteer Service Ambassador for Metro) wrote:
I say that it would be best if more people would take MetroLink or Metro Bus to get around the project. We have busses that kneel. Our Metro Park and Ride garages has elevators to get the customers to the tracks. In Clayton, we even have an escalator for if a bus transfer to MetroLink is required. With the trains running early morning well before daybreak, and they don’t quit until an hour or 2 after midnight. So if you have to have a drink, Metro a short distance from several bars. In fact CJ Muggs is served by Missouri MetroBus route #1. Just make sure that the headsign reads via Hanley and Wydowne. On the weekends, Metro offers Call-a-Ride in all parts of St. Louis County to the general public. It’s open to the general public from Lindbergh to the west. For more info or for reservations to book a ride, dial 314-534-1544 from 7:30 AM to 4:30 PM Monday thru Sunday.
on January 2, 2008 at 4:02 am Patrick D. wrote:
Regardless of your optimism, I will be driving to Shrewsbury and taking Metrolink into Clayton. I hope you’re right.
on January 2, 2008 at 10:35 am Dan wrote:
My drive to work this morning down 270 and to the Ballas Rd. Exit (I work on outer 40 drive in West County, so avoiding the west end closure is impossible for me) reminded me of when I had to fly 1 week after 9/11 and for every 2 weeks thereafter through May of 2002. The flight immediately after 9/11 was virtually empty, despite the fact that my regular flight was still canceled and I was moved to an earlier flight, but everyone was scared of flying and I suspect that almost everyone on the plane felt that they had no choice but to fly (I had a choice, and chose to fly anyway).
The planes remained empty until thanksgiving and X-mas, when there were much more compelling reasons to fly, and then crowds stayed at a high level afterward. That is what will happen here, there will come a point (opening day at Busch, Playoff Games at Scotttrade, a major convention) when people feel a need to get downtown from West County, decide its not so bad on 44 or 70 or using Page to 170, and then the volume will increase, but probably not overload the system, because a certain percentage of people (i.e. my wife) will just avoid any unnecessary trips out of west county until the western half of the project re-opens.
As for those east of the closure, I don’t know how many “necessary” trips to west county there are outside of work commute and family visits.
Additionally the argument of those who live in Chesterfield and west and complain about all the extra gas they will use to get downtown to work rings false. If they cared that much about gas in the first place, they wouldn’t have chosen to live in far west county while working down town.
on January 2, 2008 at 3:33 pm Links with Your Coffee « Highway 61 wrote:
[…] The trouble with making new year’s predictions is well documented. That being said let’s give this week a little perspective with St. Louis’ soon to be most popular blog over the next few weeks, Highway 40 insight, who are predicting it’s going to be alright. In the meantime have a laugh at your own expense as our friends with that blog flex their geek cred this year. […]
on January 3, 2008 at 11:47 am Cindy K Roberts wrote:
I have enjoyed reading your perspective about the Hwy 40 shutdown. From hearing the media’s reports, I thought I would have to saddle up my horse and ride down the boulevard.